Tosin Adarabioyo
And the Need for Excellence
👉 Foundations and Data
Tosin’s… fine? Just… fine. He’s your run-of-the-mill CB, and every time he steps on the pitch, you know what to expect—a tall guy who wins headers, makes forward runs off the ball, and is reliable enough with the ball at his feet, without ever setting the world alight.
He’s done well enough in Chelsea’s high defensive line (although its average distance of 45.01 metres is less than Brighton’s 48.05), and his hamstrings have remained in one piece, so that’s good.
Speaking of which, his injury record is pretty great. So you can add availability into the mix of things he’ll reliably give you.
The other thing Mr. Adarabioyo would give the Albion, other than a head that can thwack away seagulls, is experience. He’s older than your typical Brighton signing, but 27 for a sturdy CB is fine. He’s played a decent bit of football in his life, so you can assume he knows his way around a football pitch.
But while he gives you experience, this might not equal stability. More on that in the following section.
👉 This One Quote I Found
Well, isn’t that just an excellent heading for this section? Anyway, here’s what Perry Groves had to say about Tosin:
“The thing with Tosin, I have seen him a couple of times,” said Groves. “He is decent on the ball. He’s very strong. Very athletic and very quick.
“But he loses concentration sometimes and he just drifts out of position. I don’t think he thinks about the ‘what ifs enough’. What if we lose possession? What if the ball breaks down? Am I going to get myself exposed? That’s what I think he needs to add to his game.”
Well, that’s damning. Like a beaver.
I mean, the quote speaks for itself, really. I don’t think Tosin’s made a miraculous step forward in his development since it was said either.
But what I will say is, when playing for the current iteration of Brighton’s side, you will face some fast transitions. More specifically, you will get ripped apart. And I’m not sure drifting away into Narnia helps matters (although, of course, a good athletic base—hooray!—helps matters).
It just feels like an issue Brighton already have, so I’m not sure doubling down on it is a great idea.
👉 Financials
Now, this is where I get a little angsty and doubtful. Would Brighton really spend ~£20 million on a player who was available for free eight months ago, when they showed no concrete interest?
Does that sound like the shrewd business of Mr Tony Bloom? Or just another Chelsea briefing after realising they’re drowning in debt and tears?
For the sake of this article, let’s assume there’s actually some interest; otherwise, it’s just a bit pointless. Even if the interest doesn’t come from Brighton, the point of it is translatable, so good luck to whoever takes Chelsea’s bait.
But the thing is—and it’s quite blatantly obvious—Chelsea seriously lack leverage here. This is a player they’re reportedly trying to offload, a player who the manager reportedly doesn’t trust, and a player who’s 100% pure profit. And they seem desperate enough to accept £15 million as opposed to £20 million, so some savings can be made there.
That said, what about on a personal level?
As per Capology, Tosin’s earning £120,000 gross per week. Brighton’s average salary is £38,617 per week, with Kadioğlu earning £87,500 gross per week.
See what I’m getting at here? Quite simply, Tosin does not merit being Brighton’s highest earner, especially when you consider who he’d be out-earning (for some context, Sven Botman, who’s the better CB and plays for a club that were linked to Tosin, earns £90,000 per week).
So, if he takes a wage cut or is sent on loan with Chelsea covering 60% of his wages, let’s be having you. Otherwise…
But moving on from the financials, which are clearly a mixed bag (good from a purchase price POV, bad for wages).
👉 A Need for Excellence
Okay, the transfer market is a complicated place in today’s day and age. Players are increasingly bought as commodities and leverage in deals to satisfy PSR regulations, and some are bought because… why not? But generally, let’s assume you want to buy a player who will tangibly improve your XI, because backups exist everywhere.
And that is true of Brighton. You have backups. If Lewis Dunk and Jan Paul van Hecke are the first-choice CB pairing, you have backups in Igor, Ruari McConville, and Adam Webster. Are any of these three players you’d want to see starting on a regular basis for Brighton’s first XI?
No.
I mean, you’ll want that of McConville at some point in the future—for all we know, he’s going to replace van Hecke on the sad, painful, agonising day he leaves—but for now, he can take his time. He’s 19 and has a conservative estimate of 15 years of football ahead of him. There’s no need to rush.
Which begs the question—is the gap between Tosin and Igor bigger than the gap between Tosin and van Hecke (who I can confidently say is the club’s best CB)?
No.
So then, what’s the point?
Now, if this was a loan move with Chelsea covering a majority of the wages, Tosin would be GREAT. He’d give Dunk and JPvH some rest, especially with Igor out for the season, and you wouldn’t have to worry about defensive depth.
But is this a player you’d want on your books for 3+ years? Maybe, but not if it blocks another signing down the road. I mean, it just feels like a bit of a sideways step.
(What I’m going to say next may sound a bit holier-than-thou, but bear with me.)
Tosin’s not necessarily good enough (this is a bit too harsh) to be Chelsea’s first-choice CB. He’s fine as a depth option. But is the differential in player quality between Chelsea and Brighton (at the moment) enough to warrant Brighton having Chelsea’s backup as Brighton’s starter?
No.
So, all in all, a loan would be good. A permanent move? Not so much. At that point, Boscagli on a free is better business, simple because every club deserves a bit of the PSV quota *coughs loudly—Malik Tillman, Ryan Flamingo, Johan Bakayoko*.