For some context, Minteh’s played <75 minutes in three of Brighton’s last four games, and was benched vs. Arsenal. Combine this with these quotes, and things look… confusing. For that reason, I thought I’d ramble on a bit about what could help and hinder Minteh’s xMins, in the hopes of reaching a reasonable conclusion about what to expect moving forward.
— Minteh’s the only natural right winger at the club, but Gómez/Watson/Gruda (in order of likelihood) can fill in at a decent enough level.
— Hürzeler spoke about how Brighton will play a back five [again] at some point in the future, and Minteh doesn’t necessarily fit into that system. Sure, he can play RWB, but Kadioğlu’s perfect for that role.
— Looking at just this week, Mitoma starting isn’t a guarantee. While de Cuyper is likely to fill in here, a decent % of Gómez’s xStart comes from the left. Welbeck just coming back from injury means he’s unlikely to play 90 too, so Gruda’s minutes are likely to come centrally. All this, in theory, should mean Minteh’s good for a start vs. West Ham.
Buuuut there are a couple of issues, principally, which affect his xMins in the short and long term.
— Minteh didn’t shake Hürzeler’s hand, and a lot of Hürzeler’s comments do read a bit like a power play. If this was just a case of being put on the naughty step, then I imagine it’s just a short-term issue, in which Hürzeler can’t forever bench his most direct attacker, especially after complaining that Brighton lacked intensity and courage.
— The comments on teamwork and not working hard are frankly quite… surprising? While this is a cornerstone of Hürzeler’s press conferences, given it’s something he’s said this about everyone, Minteh is one of the hardest workers in the Premier League.
Unless he isn’t working hard in training or something along those lines, his pressing ability should always give him a rather decent xMins floor. That said, if the teamwork comments come from an attacking POV (i.e. decision making), it’s pretty feasible Hürzeler continues to bench Minteh to allow him some time to make better (?) decisions.
— Commenting on the “personal issues” would be overly speculative, so there’s no point in doing so. What I will say is that Hürzeler afforded Baleba a LOT of chances (even though they ended in 45-minute subs) and, assuming nothing’s fundamentally wrong with Minteh, he should continue doing the same. Even if the reasons for the personal issues are wildly different, the broad[er] framework is the same, and I think is less damning for xMins than, say, a tactical mismatch (back 5, lethargic pressing).
Beyond that there’s no point in looking at his xMins vs. Burnley because the uncertainty compounds, but Minteh should, in theory, start vs. West Ham.
How you factor in some uncertainty aligns with your beliefs on this situation, but public knowledge/the bottom line is that Minteh is still the club’s best right winger. He was also one of only two players to actually fit into the squad last season, and while recent events may make it seem differently, Hürzeler clearly likes him, and for good reason.
I have him on ~60 minutes for this week to account for some uncertainty (a start probably means 70-75), and 73 and decaying for the horizon (down from 83).
One thing to note is that Hürzeler had previously commented on Minteh’s inefficiency vs. low blocks, so this could further worsen his xMins depending on how you think West Ham set up. He played 72 minutes the last time the two sides met, and has seen reduced minutes when playing against sides in the relegation zone (71 vs. SUN (0-0 at the time), 72 vs. West Ham (0-0), and 84 vs. Forest (1-0 up) being the best signals).
There’s also a rumour going around that Kostoulas starts, which would further reduce Minteh’s xMins (but primarily hurt Welbeck and Georginio). Kostoulas has come on for Minteh before, and while he’s mainly played as a CF/AM over his career, he’s picked up minutes at RW [positions] for Brighton.
Kostoulas is rumoured to start, and could do so as a CF, AM, or RW. I think there’s a very high chance he ends up doing so as the right winger, with Georginio playing as the 10. Georginio has played a lot of minutes recently, though, and if he’s benched, that’s likely why.
Similarly, I think there’s a decent chance de Cuyper starts as the LW, but given the fixture, I do think Gómez’s directness and goalscoring ability will be preferred.