Ipswich vs. Brighton
Tactical Analysis, Probabilistic Determination, and the Predicted XI
🎙️ Press Conference — Injuries
You know that whole Arne Slot Penitentiary thing on Twitter? Yeah, so Fabian Hürzeler has his own version of that.
The Fabian Hürzeler Medical Centre.
Okay, so Igor’s out for the season. Long live a high defensive line and the strain it puts on hamstrings. But Lewis Dunk is expected to be back, which is always nice:
“Yeah, I think… Lewis will be back, so he will train today. Adam [Webster] is there, JP is there, so these are the three centrebacks that are available.”
Bit harsh on Ruari McConnville, but oh well.
As for João Pedro, Fabian Hürzeler had a lot to say:
“Yeah we have to see today. So he will train with the team, and then we will decide if we take the risk, and we won’t take any risk—only if it’s a calculated risk, and if he feels well, so that’s the most important that also the player feels confident with his body, so we won’t do any stupid things, but we have to wait for training session today and maybe also tomorrow.”
Has it been a frustrating season for him? It feels like it’s been disrupted quite a bit with injury?
“Yeah it seems to be that he didn’t get into his rhythm but I talked to him yesterday for a long time and he’s quite in a comfortable place—he enjoys it, he’s happy with the performance—of course, he’d like to be on the pitch every game but sometimes your body doesn’t want the same thing so you have to adapt, but in the end I think he’s in a good place. He’s performing quite good when he’s on the pitch, of course he had also some bad phases already, but in the end that’s normal, we shouldn’t miss or forget that’s he still a very young player. So that’s why I’m happy with him and I’m sure that he will help us on the pitch for the rest of the season.”
…I have some thoughts on this, but I’ll get into that in the next section.
What I will say is, inferring anything from João Pedro’s tweet (below) is just a bit pointless. “Ok” means nothing in isolation. If he initially thought he’d be out for two months but is out for six weeks instead, that’s “ok” if you ask me.
Plus, as a player, you want to be out on the pitch ASAP, but that’s not always wise. So, I wouldn’t read too much into that emotion-driven tweet.
Anyhow, moving on.
Hürzeler did not seem confident at all when speaking about Georginio Rutter and Yankuba Minteh. Frustrated, if anything. Minor hamstring issues, and I don’t think they’ll be risked (or fit).
Danny Welbeck is an option to start, however. Diego Gómez may also make the squad. How very lovely.
📝 Predicted Lineup
🐘 João Pedro
The elephant in the room. Although an overweight elephant would probably have ankles in better condition than João Pedro’s.
Look, Hürzeler’s comments were promising and lead me to believe João Pedro’s going to be in the squad, but at the same time, I think his chance of not being in the squad far exceeds his chance of starting (with an appearance off the bench being the most likely outcome).
Those comments look really good for João Pedro, but there’s a lot of nothingness in there too. Plus, this is his third ankle injury of the season, and there’s only a 64-hour gap between Ipswich (A) and United (A).
If he could hypothetically start one, I’d imagine Hürzeler prefers it to be the second, but at the same time, I have doubts about his fitness, so make of that what you will.
For FPL, I’d bench him. I don’t think he’s likely to start, and he could make an appearance off the bench for a 1-pointer and that one final blow to your xMins rank. Why put yourself through that?
🚑 The Attack
Alright, I’ll cover this in one go because I’m basically going to say the phrase “short turnaround/load management” in ten different ways.
Welbeck is injury-prone and has recently come off the back of an injury. I don’t think starting him with such a short turnaround before a game where you need him is ideal, but other than Enciso, literally no one else is fit enough to play there. One of Welbeck/Pedro will start, and I cannot see it being both. So, Welbeck’s likely to start out of necessity before being subbed off.
Georginio Rutter could conceivably start as the CF or as the 10 if fit, but we simply don’t know if he is. Hürzeler was quite pessimistic about it as well.
Mitoma’s recently been benched for Adingra due to load-management reasons; however, he played 90 on the weekend and Adingra played 0. I’d be inclined to believe Mitoma starts and Adingra comes off the bench as an early sub, but it going either way wouldn’t surprise me.
Enciso seems like a tactical fit for this match, which is why I think he’ll start. Mid block, plenty of room to run into as the 10, take some shots, have fun. But really, I think 2/3 of Enciso, O’Riley, and Ayari will start. Assuming the first does, the latter comes down to minutes management. I can’t see whoever starts today starting on Sunday, and usually, I’d expect O’Riley to start vs. United, but considering his shortfall of minutes recently… yeah, it’s not clear-cut.
Hürzeler praised Gruda, and he was good off the bench vs. Norwich. Plus, Adingra aside, he seems to be the only fit RW, so I imagine he starts.
🐄 The Defence
I’d like to, once again, reiterate that my view on the lineup prediction/fitness is a little more pessimistic given what we’ve seen under Hürzeler, so there’s room for your own error bars if you’re more hopeful than me.
Which brings me to Lewis Dunk. Sadly, this is as much of a 50/50 as a 50/50 can get. I’ll be a little more surprised if he started than if he didn’t (hence Webster being in my predicted lineup), but my world wouldn’t be rocked if he did start.
Just a “huh, fair enough,” and I’ll carry on with my day.
Okay, so Hürzeler’s praised Webster a lot recently, and to be fair to him, Webster’s been great:
Hurzeler said: “Adam is a leader—we need him on the pitch because he communicates a lot.
He is a loud speaker, not only on the training pitch, also beside that.
I think the young lads need this support and this help.
Adam worked hard during rehab and he suffered because it was a long injury, a long time when he was out.
But he was really impressive how he came back in a very tough game and very intense game.
He showed a great performance and hopefully he continue these performances.
“I’m quite sure he will play against Norwich.
But he’s also called Dunk a leader and said very nice things about Dunk. He was quite definitive in saying Dunk would be available to face Ipswich.
But the question still lingers: can Lewis Dunk start, play 70-ish minutes, and be ready to start vs. United considering the issues he’s faced with his calf?
…I’m not so sure, hence my pessimism. If he doesn’t start, I imagine he makes an appearance off the bench. So, you know, cameo risk for FPL.
Veltman vs. Lamptey could also be a toss-up, but I’d assume Lamptey is more likely to come off the bench around the 70th minute, if fit.
🕊️ Conclusion
Good luck to the medical team. That’s all I have to say.
But, in all seriousness, this is a game Brighton are expected to win, and if competent enough, should do. But it won’t be easy. You should go full tilt but can’t because half the squad is injured, and you’re off to Old Trafford very soon—it’s all just very hectic. I’d still hope for a win—it’s the probable outcome—but I really just wish the medical team well.
And that’s that, really. See you on the other side of this game for the Manchester United (A) preview, and a few more articles thrown in there. Graham Potter—can he make West Ham work? Find out tomorrow :)
Until then, have a great week ahead, and take care.