Brighton's FPL Assets (Updated)
Player Analysis, xMins, Tactics
Ahh, a good run of fixtures for Brighton. Time to make the easy look difficult.
But as players rotate more freely than a rogue wheel rolling down a cliff, one must wonder—who are Brighton’s viable FPL assets?
Is Dunk still an option? Veltman? What about Georginio Rutter? Wait no, João Pedro or Danny Welbeck?
Let’s read on, fall even more in love with João Pedro, and find out.
🕊️ Bart Verbruggen
Well, that’s an easy one to get out of the way. One of only two nailed players in Brighton’s entire squad—hooray!
For a £4.5m GK, Verbruggen’s a good asset. Since he averages 3.67 saves per 90 (in other words, a save point per game) and maintains a pass completion rate of >80%, he shows well on the BPS system.
The fact that he faces eight teams in the bottom half of your hypothetical, nerdy sheets for xG in his next 13 matches is quite nice too.
🕊️ Jan Paul van Hecke
Short attention spans // instantaneous hits of dopamine. So, I’ll get the fun stuff out of the way before complaining and caveating about copious bouts of xMins uncertainty.
Van Hecke is the second—and final—player with secure minutes in this Brighton squad.
…and he’s a fabulous option. Incredible on the BPS system (a pass completion rate of over 90% scratches an itch in my brain I didn’t even know existed), secure minutes, and great fixtures.
Who could ask for anything more? 🎵
…you probably could, because van Hecke’s attacking threat is nearly nonexistent. An npxG+xAG/90 of 0.07 (names Hecke, Jan Paul van Hecke) doesn’t exactly set the world alight, especially when you realise 0.06 of that comes from xAG.
But Brighton *have* been improving on corners, and that can only mean van Hecke’s big, jolly ol’ head gets more attention when it comes to scoring from set pieces. His xG data’s been a lot lower than usual, and I *feel* like some reversion is a decent expectation.
A smile worth its weight in gold, and an FPL price worth its weight in £4.5m.
🕊️ Lewis Dunk
Hürzeler said today that Lewis Dunk has been training, will be assessed over the next few days, and is close.
But what about Igor—he’s been excellent. Could he continue starting?
Yes. He could. It’s just not that likely. Let’s say Dunk was 95% to start a game at any given point in the season before his injury. Maybe it’s 85% now? Not nailed, per se, but as close to it as you can be without being it (that sounds oddly philosophical).
I’ll caveat this by noting he’s 33, so just as I’ll mention with Welbeck (below), fatigue will eventually play a part in his xMins decay. That said, it’ll be to a lesser extent, given how good Dunk is on the ball and Brighton’s reliance on his leadership.
Considering all this, I think there’s a good chance he starts in GW13. Ahoy, a fairly decent npxG+xAG/90 of 0.09.
Anyway, here’s a nice quote on Dunk from Hürzeler to end this section:
We also can be honest to each other to say the opinion when something went wrong. You have to build this trust for the relationship.
It won't come overnight. It's like in a relationship with a girl, it doesn't come with the first date, it doesn't come with the second date.
It comes with time, when you gain the trust, when you experience things together, when you make memories together, then you gain the trust and you can’t increase it with artificial things.
🕊️ Pervis Estupiñán
Estupiñán’s an interesting case. His minutes look good—although he has competition from Jack Hinshelwood—and he often pops up into dangerous positions, like moles in whack-a-mole.
…But his npxG+xAG/90 of 0.17 is low. Relative to his past self, at least. And it makes sense—Brighton’s fullbacks aren’t as attacking as they once were and are now often used as decoys in the build-up.
Considering this, I don’t mind Estupiñán as an option? I just don’t think his attacking threat warrants the minutes risk over someone like Jan Paul van Hecke.
If you do go there, just hope Fabian Hürzeler doesn’t invite him over for Bratwurst. If you know, you know.
🕊️Joël Veltman
I’m really not the biggest fan of Veltman as an FPL asset. He costs the same as van Hecke, has had worse npxG+xAG/90 data over the last two seasons, and won’t see minutes to the same extent over congested periods.
His minutes have looked good and should continue to do so in the short term, but he has stiff competition—your Hinshelwood’s, Lamptey’s, and Kadioğlu’s.
*Insert swift transition into talking about Ferdi Kadioğlu*
🕊️ Ferdi Kadioğlu
If Turkish media is to be believed, Kadioğlu’s out for between two weeks and 1.5 months. Talk about wide error bars, eh?
On the other hand, the club maintains that he has only a “small issue.”
Putting aside the heavily contrasting medical reports, let’s just talk about what role Kadioğlu would be expected to assume when fit. That seems like a fun compromise, as I scamper hurriedly and look for this one quote… ah ha!
I think that’s a big thing from him and a big advantage that he has this flexibility.
But, of course, for the player, it’s also easier if he is like fixed on one position because then you can prepare better.
Then you can get to know better the principle, what is needed in this position because they are all different profiles.
When you play as a right winger, there is a different profile or there are different principles needed than instead if you play as a left-back.
So I prefer that one player plays consistently in one position.
But Ferdi is so good that he has this flexibility in his mind and also in his body that he can play several positions.”
While at Brighton, Kadioğlu primarily played in three positions: LB (inverting into the midfield), RB (inverting into the midfield), and RW (inverting into nothing because he’s a winger).
So he’s clearly versatile. But the thing is, Brighton don’t need a RW. Yes, Kadioğlu’s been good there, but so has Minteh, and so has Georginio, and so has Gruda, and so has Adingra.
Enumeration (ooh, fancy word for saying I made a list), aside, Kadioğlu’s needed as a fullback. Considering the fundamentals for playing this first-phase inverted fullback, second-phase width-holder-runner role are very different on either side, eventually, he’s going to have to “prefer” a side.
When it comes to the LB spot, we have Estupiñán, Hinshelwood, Lamptey, and Baleba (sort of).
As for the RB? Veltman, Hinshelwood (but LB and the midfield!), and Lamptey.
Factor in Kadioğlu primarily having played on the right so far, and bam!
Kadioğlu’s a RB.
🕊️Joël Veltman (Conclusion)
Which means Veltman’s time there is somewhat limited. So, until Kadioğlu’s fit, Veltman’s minutes should be *fine*, although I’d expect him to miss a game or two with fixture congestion.
When Kadioğlu’s back, all hell breaks loose. At least Declan Rice will be happy.
🕊️ Kaoru Mitoma
An npxG+xAG/90 of 0.52 (regressing to his historical average), seemingly incredibly attacking, often very close to goal… yeah, Mitoma’s a decent pick in isolation.
Again, he isn’t nailed—but his minutes look good. He’s started every match but one (which was after an IB), and there’s no reason for him to not continue doing so.
But, at some point, there may be. He has competition, to be fair—Adingra, Enciso. There’s just a lot going on there. So Mitoma could get restricted minutes when the schedule gets heavy.
I personally think there are better options around the £6.4m bracket, but you could do worse.
🕊️ Georginio Rutter
I… just would not want to go here. He has João Pedro, Gruda, Enciso, and Ayari as competition for the 10. Minteh, Adingra, Gruda, Kadioğlu for RW. Georginio could start most games, don’t get me wrong, his performances merit it. But there’s simply so much competition that he just isn’t a viable FPL asset.
Enticing, sure. But this is beyond just a simple risk.
🕊️ Forwards
Oh, I’m looking forward to this section—so much so that I’ve made an introduction for it. A very pointless introduction, but anyway.
🕊️ João Pedro
I like João Pedro. A lot. And we have reason to believe that Fabian Hürzeler also likes João Pedro. A lot.
Yeah he makes a difference. I think every premier league club has this one player who makes the special things, and I think he’s exactly that player for us.
And he’s not only a great player, he’s also a great leader—you know, I think we underestimate him a little bit regarding leader skills—he’s a great leader, he’s very demanding—he demands a lot from his teammates, he always sets the standards really high, and I think he’s a big role model for all the young players.
And, it just makes sense. Hürzeler judges his offensive players on their defensive work, and Pedro is an absolute workhorse in this regard. Like a hamster in its little wheel—just run, run, run all day.
Does no one else want to hear about Pedro’s percentile ranks for tackles, interceptions, clearances, and aerials won? No? Huh, who’d have thought that.
But seriously, Pedro ranks well on Hürzeler’s number 1 metric and does brilliantly from an offensive standpoint.
He has an npxG+xAG/90 of 0.62 in an admittedly small sample size, 4 G+A to show for it, and is firmly first-choice penalty taker.
All for £5.5m.
But, of course, the biggest caveat is to do with his xMins. I don’t think he’s nailed (his competition includes (deep breath in) Welbeck, Ferguson, Gruda, Georginio, Enciso, Ayari, and Hinshelwood), but I think he should start more often than not. His versatility helps—he can play as the CF, as the 10/8, and fill in quite literally everywhere else if he needs to.
But CF is the most interesting one. Danny Welbeck has a certain skillset there, that fits what Brighton expects of their CF better than anyone else’s. But while this is true for now, what about in the long term?
Ferguson can do that. And, more importantly, João Pedro can too.
Even though he’s best as the 10, he’s a *pretty* good CF. We’ve seen him “trialled” there sometimes—when Welbeck was subbed off, JP 9 magically came forth.
So we have reason to believe João Pedro’s xMins should be… fine? Of course, they’re not completely secure, but they’re not very insecure either. And when he starts, his xMins should be good.
To account for the probability that he doesn’t, and therefore his *actual* xMins, maybe a ceiling of ~82, ~65-70 this week (I’ll go over this in tomorrow’s preview), decaying to the low 60s by the end of the horizon.
Do you hear that? That’s the music of some sweet, sweet EV.
🕊️ Danny Welbeck
I like Danny Welbeck. And so does Hürzeler. But as an FPL option… not as much?
Let me put it this way—he costs £0.5m more than João Pedro, will not take penalties, has overperformed his historical data by a LOT, and has had his share of injury issues in the past.
But then we have his xMins. Short term, I think they should be fine.
But long term? While I think João Pedro could also struggle during the more congested weeks, I expect Welbeck to most certainly not start three in a week, given that’d be irresponsible considering his injury record.
He’s also aging, and to expect him to play consecutive 90s just doesn’t seem sustainable.
Now, we can’t understate Welbeck’s importance to Hürzeler (there’s been a huge amount of praise there) and the experience he brings to the XI, but at some point in time, decay and fatigue will begin to set in.
🕊️ João Pedro vs. Danny Welbeck
If you want to get both, then sure, get both. But if you’re getting just one, I much prefer João Pedro, even if his xMins do end up slightly lower (unlikely) than Welbeck’s.
🫡 Conclusion
Yeah… things are… complicated. This is the deepest and most versatile squad Brighton have ever had, so… you know.
Anything can happen, really. Specific match-up tweaks are the norm. But certain players—your van Hecke’s, your Baleba’s, your João Pedro’s… they’re simply really good.
While one of those three isn’t as safe for minutes as the others, for his price, he seems robust enough. Have a deep bench, and go jolly into the winter night.
Thank you for reading, take care, and see you tomorrow as I preview Brighton’s trip to Bournemouth.