Brighton's FPL Assets
Individual Analysis, xMins, Lineup Predictions
I usually begin these articles with a nice, positive introduction.
But this is FPL we’re talking about. Positive variance and green arrows are simply myths.
But maybe Brighton’s assets can change that. Well, some can at least. The others… err.
So, read on to see who the good ones are. And for some more João Pedro love.
🕊️ Context
Oh boy, where do I even begin? Perhaps by mentioning that the names in red are likely to leave on loan, and green marks potential incomings.
Let’s just say squad depth and versatility are unlikely to be issues for Brighton this season.
…Until you look at the defence, at which point you should probably run around screaming and praying for the structural integrity of Jan Paul van Hecke’s limbs.
But more on my defensive concerns later.
For now, let’s see how Brighton’s new signings affect the FPL prospects of their current ones.
💥 Brajan Gruda
I initially expected Gruda to play as a number 10 and fill in at RW when needed.
This would mean he’d primarily affect Welbeck’s xMins, as João Pedro could simply shift over into the CF spot.
João Pedro’s xMins would take a slight hit as well, as Gruda would have effectively forced him out of one position.
And so too would Minteh, given that he now has competition or someone to come on for him around the 70th minute.
But then Gruda said this:
“I don’t care if I play right wing, number 10 or number 8. I just want to play.”
Number 8?!
I get it, I do. One midfielder has been quite advanced all throughout pre-season, while the other sat deep alongside an inverted fullback.
Now, if Gruda fills in there, someone naturally has to drop out. Someone like Carlos Baleba.
And Carlos Baleba has looked quite good at left-back. He’s more physical than Valentin Barco, and he’s one of the better duellers in Brighton’s squad.
And those are traits Brighton simply needs, given the let’s-attack-what’s-defending-anyway vibe of Brighton’s squad.
So, in an extremely roundabout and somewhat speculative way, Valentin Barco’s xMins take a very small hit.
But when it comes to Barco, there’s another name that’s more worrying. So let’s look at who that is.
🤸🏻 Ferdi Kadioğlu
I’ll get the obvious question out of the way. Why the stretching emoji?
Well, Kadioğlu’s versatile (flexible), to say the least. According to Transfermarkt, he’s played:
- 68 games at left-back
- 56 at attacking midfield
- 44 at right wing
- 37 at right-back
- 24 at left wing
- 20 at left midfield
…and some more at central/right midfield.
So, either Kadioğlu is indecisive and confused, or he’s simply good enough to play anywhere.
Hint: it’s the latter.
I firmly believe Kadioğlu is best as a left-back. However, he’s right-footed and isn’t too shabby as a RB—a position that Brighton are sorely lacking in—veltman and Lamptey (who’s extremely injury-prone) are out of contract in the summer, and Jack Hinshelwood is still quite young (but more than capable).
Meanwhile, the LB spot has Barco (who’s impressed in pre-season and fits Hürzeler’s offensive ideals), Estupiñán, and Lamptey.
Weighing up the two positions, I would hope Kadioğlu plays RB. He’d be comfortable inverting from the right given his experience on the left, and his right-footedness means he’d be able to hold the width and overlap Minteh.
But we simply cannot discount him getting minutes at left-back. Even though I don’t think it’s the probable outcome, it is still possible.
So, Barco’s xMins take a further hit.
Assuming Kadioğlu’s signed (or links progress), Barco’s xMins should heavily decay from Gameweek 3, as opposed to the previously mentioned Gameweek 5.
🦚 Georginio Rutter
Rutter’s signing would realistically have the same xMins impact as Gruda’s will.
Welbeck’s xMins fall heavily, given João Pedro is more likely to fill in as theCF than as a number 10.
João Pedro’s xMins decay that little bit more aggressively given he now has a lot of competition in the number 10 role. I expect his minutes to be alright for the foreseeable future (let’s say, until Gameweek 6), but as Evan Ferguson and Julio Enciso return (which will take time), all hell could break loose.
Minteh’s xMins take a small hit, as Gruda may get more game time as a RW given he has competition in the number 10 spot.
And Mitoma’s xMins take a small hit too, as João Pedro could theoretically play as a LW. That said, this would likely be countered by the impact of Simon Adingra leaving, as Pedro is unlikely to fill in at LW if Adingra is still available.
🍀 Matt O’Riley
This is beginning to feel like an elaborate plan on how best to give Brighton predictors some stress and uncertainty.
Since O’Riley could play as the number 10, the xMins of those who can fill in there will fall.
But he’d mainly affect Carlos Baleba, given I’d expect O’Riley to play as the 8 in the pivot.
By proxy, you could argue that Barco’s xMins fall a little more (since Baleba could play left-back), but given that the links to O’Riley aren’t as concrete and there are plenty of variables in play here, I wouldn’t worry too much about that happening.
📝 Preferred Lineups
Before I get into the xMins caveats of João Pedro, Minteh, Barco, and Dunk, I thought I’d go over what I’d expect Brighton’s XI to look like in the near future (let’s say before the first international break), and a few months down the line.
A green circle around a player means their position is relatively secure, no circle means it’s all a bit 🤷, and red is just a no-no.
Of course, since this is quite an oversimplification, I’ll get into the details in the next section.
In the short term (GWs 1-3):
Milner’s a threat to Baleba in the short run, and especially so in GW 1. As time goes on and Milner ages (this sounds overly dramatic, doesn’t it?), he becomes less of a threat.
Sarmiento somewhat threatens Welbeck, but realistically, I don’t see any reason why Welbeck shouldn’t start. I’d just like to be cautious given his age and injury propensity.
In the long term:
I rate Evan Ferguson extremely highly. The only reason Enciso and he aren’t in the above graphic is that I think their minutes will be managed while they recover from injury-hit seasons.
🕊️ João Pedro
I like João Pedro. And I think Hürzeler will too.
A lot of Hürzeler’s post-match quotes revolve around pressing (which I’ll cover in the Minteh section), and Pedro has greatly improved in this regard.
Simply put, it’s fair to say he’s Brighton’s best attacker.
But this doesn’t mean he’s nailed. Yes, I think he’ll start for the foreseeable future, but rotation is inevitable when the entire (or a large part) of the squad is fit.
I think Pedro starts in Gameweek 1, but since he’s only played 45 minutes in pre-season, I expect limited minutes. So, all in all, xMins of 60-65 for Gameweek 1.
I think expecting 75 minutes for Gameweek 2 is reasonable, but I would anticipate a slightly above-average decay beyond Gameweek 4.
This is not to say that Pedro doesn’t merit a start, because if that were the only criterion, he’d be one of the first names on the teamsheet. It’s just that Brighton simply have enough attacking depth to warrant some caution with his minutes in the long term, especially given that the info we have now will be very different to what we have then.
When he does start, though, he should get good minutes, be heavily involved in attack, and, of course, take penalties.
I’m more worried than I was a few days ago, but I feel *relatively* comfortable having João Pedro in my team (although Armstrong has embedded himself in my solves).
🕊️ Valentin Barco
I’m going to preface this section with a small warning: I find myself being very cautious with Barco’s xMins. He was in my latest draft, but having him is not something I’m overly happy with.
This could change, of course, and I might be being slightly irrational here (pre-existing biases), so I’ve attempted to lay down my thoughts in a manner that helps you reach your own conclusion, rather than having to overly rely on mine.
So here’s a few notes from pre-season:
Barco was excellent offensively in all of the matches he featured in.
He fits Hürzeler’s ideologies perfectly, given he can hold the width and invert.
And he’s probably the club’s best set-piece taker.
But, for some reason, I just worry about his minutes.
Perhaps it’s my view on him off the ball, or defensively, but I’d hesitate to bump up his minutes, even if that’s a possibility.
For one, I would never have expected Baleba to play left-back. Admittedly, I think that was more of an experiment, but given that it’s worked out well, there is a case for Baleba to play left-back when Brighton are attempting to see out a game (say, beyond the 70th minute).
And even if I think Kadioğlu’s being linked with Brighton to play as a right-back, we can’t entirely discount him playing left-back either. We can’t forget Estupiñán either.
So we find ourselves in a situation where:
Barco’s minutes may be safe for the near future.
He may be prone to an early substitution.
He’ll be taking set-pieces.
But this situation also includes:
Some long-term risk, via Estupiñán, (potentially) Kadioğlu, and to a lesser extent, Lamptey.
Minor short-term risk via Baleba (who I’d much rather see as a central midfielder).
Some of De Zerbi’s quotes regarding Barco’s off the ball work don’t inspire confidence either.
To conclude, there is a world where he consistently starts, and you can enjoy a £4.0m defender with 75 xMins and set-pieces each week. But I’d feel more comfortable having Barco in the high 60s with decay to begin, with a heavy decay beyond Gameweek 5.
Similar to Pedro (although to a larger extent), I find it best to be cautious rather than bullish, given the competition he has.
On a brighter note, he has a small chance of seeing minutes at left wing if Adingra leaves. I wouldn’t rely on this, though.
🕊️ Yankuba Minteh
Minteh’s great. His FBRef scouting report looks like a horizontal cityscape filled with skyscrapers.
And even though he carries some margin of error coming from the Eredivisie, an npxG+xAG/90 of 0.87 speaks for itself.
Firstly, I wouldn't place too much emphasis on his limited minutes at Feyenoord—they picked up as time went on, and Slot was more than happy to sub his wingers off early.
But I would be slightly worried about his xMins at Brighton.
He more than warrants a starting spot, and up until a few days ago, I was extremely bullish on his minutes. But now, Brighton have signed Gruda and are close to signing Rutter.
To put it simply, I think Minteh continues starting in the short term. But, as it was with João Pedro, things are just so murky in the future. Assuming all goes well, I see no reason he shouldn’t consistently start, but that’s something we just can’t say for sure.
Furthermore, none of Brighton’s pre-season friendlies followed a strict five-sub rule, so we don’t know how Hürzeler plans to manage this squad in terms of in-game subs. If it’s any consolation, Minteh was one of the last players to be subbed off against Villarreal, which should be a good indication of his fitness.
I’d have his minutes at low-mid 70s to start with, and a slightly above-average decay around Gameweek 4.
Gruda is arguably Minteh’s main competition at the moment, and while I expect him to be an incredible player down the line, Hürzeler has spoken about how Gruda needs to be given time. That is, of course, a very ambiguous statement to make, but it should indicate a run of sub appearances (for Gruda) before he has the chance to start.
Until then, Minteh’s xMins look good. The only issue is, we just don’t know when that’ll change.
I mentioned Minteh’s off-the-ball work previously, and there were some mixed opinions on them. So, I encourage you to check them out for yourself here.
🕊️ Lewis Dunk
Yeah, so… Brighton don’t really have much depth at CB.
Dunk’s minutes should be good, and alongside van Hecke, he should be the first name on the teamsheet.
Brighton are linked with another CB, but Dunk’s experience and calmness are invaluable, given the youth and chaos of this squad and system. So, while a new CB does mean increased competition, Dunk should remain largely unaffected. If anything, it just makes it easier to rest him in some of the 'easier' cup games.
And even though he’s only played 45 minutes in pre-season, I expect him to start in Gameweek 1. With Groß gone, he’s the heartbeat and leader of this Brighton side.
Dunk’s also a really good asset in the long run and should have good goal threat—it’s a small sample size, and potentially irrelevant in the grand scheme of uncertainty, Brighton’s set-pieces looked excellent in pre-season.
He’s also older than Hürzeler. That’s not relevant in any way, I just find it funny.
🕊️ Welbeck and Mitoma
Welbeck’s xMins should be good for the first couple of gameweeks, but I’d expect him to be subbed off early fairly regularly.
I find Welbeck to be really underappreciated, to be honest, and if you ask me, he’s any manager's dream. I just think, given his age, injury record, and role, early subs are the norm. An example of an early sub could include Sarmiento coming on, with João Pedro moving to CF.
When Welbeck does start (so, say Gameweek 1), I expect it to be alongside Pedro. When Ferguson returns and Gruda/Rutter get integrated into the squad, Welbeck’s viability as an FPL asset ends.
While this may be overly cautious, I think he’s only really safe in terms of xMins until Gameweek 3.
Mitoma’s xMins look good, and he should be first-choice on the left. In my opinion, the gap in quality between Mitoma and the next best left winger is the largest compared to any other position in the squad (for example, between Gruda/Rutter as AMs).
I rate Adingra quite highly, but it looks like he’s on his way out of the club, which further increases Mitoma’s xMins. That said, I prefer Nkunku as an FPL asset with Brighton’s early fixtures being the way they are.
🕊️ Conclusion
Dunk is probably my pick of the assets given his xMins security, with João Pedro close behind 🥇
Barco’s likely a better asset than I give him credit for, but I’d prefer to be cautious since I value bench depth.
Minteh’s xMins remain decent, but they’ve taken a hit with the Gruda/Rutter news.
Mitoma is a good option based on xMins, but considering the price point and the reliance on him every week, including during the tough fixtures, I prefer alternatives (Nkunku).
And that’s that. I’ll sign off before I end up forcing Minteh into all my solves. See you tomorrow for the Gameweek 1 preview and lineup prediction, and until then, have a great day 🍬
*(All video and image credits go to their respective owners, including “Official Brighton and Hove Albion” on YouTube)*
Top work as usual, thank you for this!