Brighton vs. Wolves

Preview: Predicted XI, Tactics, Player Analysis

Oct 25, 2024

Oh hello! Long time no see, and we even have new graphics. How fun.

That win against Newcastle was… my oh my. I've wanted to see Brighton pull off a disciplined low block for so long, just to know it’s possible—and it was perfect. Utterly perfect.

…But here’s the issue: Wolves also set up in a deep block. And Brighton’s history against deep blocks? Err…

But maybe, just maybe, this time things could be different. How? Why? Let’s find out.

🎙️ Press Conference

🩹 Injuries and Suspensions

Danny Welbeck’s hit a nerve in what was a “very painful” incident. Making him fit for the game will be a challenge, but he‘ll be assessed day-to-day, and the extent to which he will be involved will be decided after training.

Rumour has it the injury is actually from carrying the attack, but oh well.

Straightens up. Deepens voice. Looks to camera

And again, we ask: “Where IS João Pedro?”

Yeah, no one knows. His return date is still unknown.

Yankuba Minteh has a minor muscular problem and Adam Webster will need 2-3 weeks to get back on the pitch after suffering an injury that “is not bad.”

Hürzeler reiterated that he won’t take any risks with his players though, given “the hard period of the Premier League is still in front of us.”

🐺 On Wolves’ Struggles

Hürzeler once again refused to say that this is an easy game, which is what the question alluded to. Specifically:

It will be a hard challenge, they have quality, they have individual quality, they changed their formation to a back five and they defended very compact.

Furthermore, he emphasised Wolves’ ability in transition, specifically focusing on Semedo (err), Cunha, Lemina (who’s a good ball carrier), and Strand Larsen (who’s a good target player).

🏰 The Win vs. Newcastle

Masochism is clearly on the table because:

In Newcastle where not a lot of teams are able to win you suffer together – when you don't concede a goal, then it shows.

What I do like, however, is this:

And then it's always to understand, especially for the mindset that defence is the most important. And then it's always to understand, especially for the mindset that defence is the most important.
If we don't concede a goal, if you're able to defend together, if the strikers and offence, they understand that they are the first defender, then we always have the energy and quality to score a goal out of nowhere.

Fabian Hürzeler is simply Mikel Arteta reincarnate. And I absolutely love it.

🧢 Lewis Dunk

In short, Hürzeler praised Lewis Dunk A LOT, and deservedly so.

He also said this, and I suppose Valentine’s Day isn’t too far away:

We also can be honest to each other to say the opinion when something went wrong. You have to build this trust for the relationship.
It won't come overnight. It's like in a relationship with a girl, it doesn't come with the first date, it doesn't come with the second date.
It comes with time, when you gain the trust, when you experience things together, when you make memories together, then you gain the trust and you can’t increase it with artificial things.

🇮🇪 Evan Ferguson

Ferguson is “in great shape, to be honest, mentally and also physically.”

Hürzeler’s happy with his defensive work and has said that it’s time for the coaching staff to now help him (essentially, Ferguson’s doing everything right).

🇧🇷 Igor Julio

Igor was facing a difficult situation, but Hürzeler said he was very impressed by him and how he didn’t shy away from the ball.

He also said this, and when combined with last week’s quotes and transfer rumours, you just have to wonder…

We also have to see that we have three games in a short period of time. So I'm sure we need every player and every player will get his game time. And that's what I also will say to the team.
So everyone has to prepare, that he has to be ready on Saturday, that he has to be ready for the next games and that we need every player and we have not that big squad at the moment.
So we really, really have to stay together. We really have to create this bond to each other, and therefore we need Igor in his best version, and that's what he presented the last games and weeks here.

🇹🇷 Ferdi Kadioğlu

Kadioğlu admitted to struggling, as Hürzeler acknowledged that adjusting to the Premier League’s intensity is difficult (gasp). That said, he also mentioned that he believes Kadioğlu is going to get to his best shape in the next few weeks.

♟️ Tactics

Of course, when Minteh and Mitoma are on the pitch, it's a different formation, because in the end you have to bring the players in their best areas and the best spaces, where they can show their whole potential.

I love this quote, and I think it just goes to show Hürzeler’s footballing ideology—make the team work hard together to maximise individual brilliance.

This was in response to setting up differently against Newcastle, and without Minteh and Mitoma, as Hürzeler elaborated on analysts and detailed game plans.

📝 Predicted Lineup

I’ve had to update the above prediction following Brighton posting a training video, so some information as per the below analysis may have changed, particularly regarding Wieffer.

Anyway, Hinshelwood drops out of the prediction as he wasn’t seen in training.

Verbruggen’s chances take a slight hit as he wasn’t shown either, though the video didn’t focus much on the keepers. Steele appeared briefly on Tuesday but wasn’t shown on Thursday.

If van Hecke’s fit to start, he will. It’s that simple, really.

Now, I didn’t expect him to last week, which turned out to be correct, given he’d only recently come back from an injury that should’ve kept him out for longer.

But this is Jan Paul we’re talking about. He’s special. One of a kind. He does his job without a fuss and is excellent at it.

I imagine two weeks of training and some minutes against Newcastle were enough to get him up to speed.

He’s going to be a dribbly boi against Wolves, pressing up high into their defensive block, as both fullbacks are relatively unmarked in the half spaces.

One long ball is all it takes 🎵

🕊️ Estupiñán/Kadioğlu

The LB spot is… uh… complicated.

Estupiñán’s been decent when fit. Kadioğlu, on the other hand, has had some defensive struggles.

… but he did look good against Newcastle.

Estupiñán missed out against Wolves for reasons I assume were fitness-related (long travels during the international break), and I expect him to return to the XI for Wolves (A).

But it’s really close. Both can play the role I expect them to undertake to a high degree—inverting in the first phase of build-up, which drags Wolves’ fullbacks out of position. Both of Brighton’s wingers (Mitoma and Rutter) then cut in, followed by both fullbacks (primarily the LB) overlapping, as the RCM goes wide on the right.

C’est la vie? Non, monsieur, what a life.

🕊️ Wieffer

Oh Wieffer, you’re an excellent player, and no amount of short-term struggle is going to change that.

No, seriously, he can be a world-beater.

Just look at this. It’s the absolute truth. Full bars = good. Always.

…But he has struggled this season. A little rusty, as he hasn’t gotten consistent minutes, perhaps.

That said, I don’t think a start is far away. Some minutes off the bench this week, and a start midweek, perhaps?

Get the momentum going. Get the rust out of his legs. Unleash the Wieffe—that doesn’t really sound threatening, does it?

🕊️ Ayari

I wouldn’t blame you for thinking Ayari’s a seasoned veteran of the sport after the season he’s had, for both club and country.

In fact, he’s so good that I can confidently say Ayari’s the second best thing to come out of Sweden (after IKEA’s meatballs, of course).

In all seriousness, Ayari’s been great. As per the above lineup, he’d play more as a 10, with Baleba as the LDM and Hinshelwood as the RDM (who drifts a little wide).

Ayari would get advanced, have minimal first-phase responsibility, and generally wreak havoc.

But boy oh boy, I wish it was that simple. His starting spot isn’t guaranteed, but for that, let’s look at the attack.

🕊️ Welbeck

Oh, Danny boy, the pipes, the pipes are calling…

That has no relevance here, but the song is stuck in my head, so you may as well suffer along with me.

Welbeck should start if he’s fit. But I simply think he won’t be.

Even if he were, Brighton don't have any need to risk him. Evan Ferguson is literally right there.

And so is Georginio. And even Julio Enciso.

So let Welbeck rest. Brighton will need him against Liverpool, Liverpool again, and City. Not Wolves.

🕊️ Ferguson

Okay, Ferguson didn’t have the most ideal 2023/24. I would show his FBref scouting report, but it goes against everything I stand for.

Very much a severe case of red (and empty) bars.

But Ferguson will be fine. More than fine, even. I mean, he can become a T5 CF in the world.

But for now, he has work to do. I’m glad he’s putting in defensive work, and if Hürzeler’s comments are true and not a sad rendition of Pinocchio, then Ferguson should start.

…and be first-choice penalty taker.

🕊️ Enciso

I have a sneaky feeling Enciso starts. And why not?

Enciso as the RCM (ahead of Ayari), cutting inside as Hinshelwood runs wide on the right, meaning Enciso gets enough space to be himself and shoot, dribble, run as he pleases? That sounds great to me.

But there’s a lot of uncertainty here. It depends on how Hürzeler thinks he’s doing defensively and even how Enciso is himself after a long international break. And I do worry about his OOP contributions, especially when facing transitions.

Bottom line is, he was excellent against Newcastle in the few minutes he got, and his pace and dribbling, especially when running in behind, could be huge for unlocking a low block, particularly one like Wolves’.

🫡 Conclusion

A chaotic week in terms of predicting the lineup, but any week where Brighton are favourites to win a game of football can’t be that bad, can it?

But soon we have Liverpool home and away, followed by City at home—so let’s enjoy the good while we can.

Eh, who am I kidding. What’s Erling Haaland in front of Jan Paul van Hecke anyway?

Thank you for reading, and I hope you’ve enjoyed. Take care, and have a great week.

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