Brighton vs. Southampton
Predicted XI, Tactics, Player Analysis
Southampton (H). A game where Brighton are favourites again, but a game that makes fans more nervous than any other.
What a funny world this is.
But I’m unusually confident of a result in this game. Yes, Brighton are overperforming a lot of their data, but the team looks… good? Very, very good, in fact.
And since pressing is Hürzeler’s whole philosophy, and he comes up against Russell Martin, who just loves to play out from the back, a few forced errors seem likely.
Who by? How so? Let’s find out.
📝 Predicted Lineup
🕊️ Lewis Dunk
IF Dunk is fit, I think he starts. When Dunk is fit, I think he deserves to start over Igor. Hürzeler’s quotes on him sugest as much.
Look, Igor’s been great, and I don’t think you can ever take that away from him. In 2042, songs will be sung and tales will be told about Igor’s form in November 2024. I mean, they deserve to be.
But Lewis Dunk is… Lewis Dunk. Excellent on the ball, solid enough defensively, and he’s just… Mr Brighton.
Okay, okay, that may not seem like the most analytical thing I’ve ever written, but it’s true.
He brings a sort of leadership and calming presence to an otherwise (relatively) young side. And that sort of thing is invaluable.
I went to my ophthalmologist recently, so I know my eyes work. And the eyes do not lie—this is a good player (data from mclachbot and fbref).
Okay, so we’ve established that Lewis Dunk is good. Water is wet, the sky is blue, and grass is a made-up concept for when spreadsheets don’t work.
But why is he not in my predicted XI?
We just don’t know when he started training or to what extent he did. So, all this murkiness makes it feel right to assume a scenario where he starts on the bench and comes on around the 75th minute to get some minutes in his legs before a tougher game vs Fulham (A) next Thursday.
So, his xMins looks something like this:
30% chance of 90
15% chance of 75-80
40% chance of 10-15
15% chance of 0
Giving him an xMins of 43.625.
Make of that what you will.
If you use FPL Review, I believe Dunk’s chance of making a cameo is far, far higher than what’s already baked in. Defending a slender lead = you could do with Dunk’s presence. Winning by a large margin = may as well give him some easy minutes. Trailing? Yeah, alright, he stays on the bench.
Van Hecke made a cameo vs Newcastle while defending a 1-0 lead, for example.
Anyway, here’s a (presumbaly embargoed) quote on Lewis Dunk, from The Argus:
“Of course, Igor and JP, they are doing great jobs so far and that gives us competition in the training.
“Lewis is a very important player for me.
“He helps the team, he helps me, he has great experience and knows what to do to be successful in the Premier League.
“Now we have a lot of games and I’m sure there will be several options to change the formation and the players who are playing together.
“Igor and Lewis, Lewis and JP, Lewis, JP and Igor. “It’s an option that they can all play together.
“I love the way they are all back and they are all in great shape.
“Now we will see how fast Lewis is back in the team, get him re-integrated.
“But it is clear he is my captain and he’s one of the most important players in the team for me and he will help us to be successful.”
🕊️ The Midfield
Yeah, this is quite a fun one. I get the feeling—and honestly, I do somewhat understand the rationale behind it—that Hürzeler didn’t fully trust Mats Wieffer. I say trust, but I just can’t find a better word. Rely on, maybe?
It’s honestly quite reasonable. Moving from the Dutch league, and a very dominant Feyenoord side where he was a metronomic figure, to the Premier League and a new-look Brighton side isn’t easy (unless you’re Yankuba Minteh).
But Wieffer is good. And that trust/reliance has to come sometime. It may as well be when Carlos Baleba’s suspended, and Brighton have a relatively easy (famous last words) game coming up.
He played well at the weekend and won a few duels. Keep winning them, do your stuff in the aerial duels, work hard OOP, allow Carlos Baleba to play as the LCM, and ooh, heaven is a place on earth, Mr Wieffer 🎵
As for his faux pivot partner, it’s really between two players: Yasin Ayari and Matt O’Riley.
Now, this is close (again). Last week, I didn’t expect O’Riley to start, given he was coming off a bad injury and had just spent time away during the international break, as Denmark decided to give him a call.
But since then, he’s made another appearance off the bench and trained with the squad for a week. Basically, he’s ready.
Ayari’s involvement in the training pictures was limited (barring one part where he simply couldn’t figure out how to work a beanie), but given its vagueness, this may hold limited predictive potential.
Look, O’Riley’s really, really good. But so is Ayari. But also… this might be a good game to get O’Riley into the thick of things. You know, somewhat easier game, more licence to get forward, minutes in the legs before a difficult game vs Fulham, more failed olés…
Come on, Mr Fabian. You know you want to.
🕊️ Georginio Rutter/Yankuba Minteh
I think Georginio starts. He’s been superb and is a player who does a lot more than just score goals (which is funny considering how many he can score).
But I’d like to highlight Yankuba Minteh as a possible xMins threat to Georginio in the future (as a winger only, because, my oh my, please get Georginio in the 10).
Minteh’s brilliant. I would share his radars because of how full they are (very Domino’s-esque), but instead, I’d like to wax lyrical a bit.
The guy just never stops running. He presses so incredibly well that his defensive work makes him an offensive threat (which simultaneously makes no sense, yet makes perfect sense).
He’s incredibly fast, so those runs in behind are beyond valuable, and he’s a dribbly boi.
TLDR? Superstar.
Didn’t read the TLDR? Here are the radars:
I’m sorry, what is this absolute monstrosity?
📝 Tactics
I can imagine João Pedro wreaking havoc given he never stops running, as Brighton build up in a 2-3-5, with Veltman inverting and sitting narrow, allowing O’Riley to push up as an advanced 8.
Estupiñán, on the other hand, can stay relatively deep (and wide) to cover the spaces João Pedro leaves behind.
Welbeck’s hold-up play is likely to be needed, as Mitoma, Pedro, O’Riley, and Georginio crash the box, overloading both the wide and central areas.
van Hecke, however, can live out his dreams as a dribbly boi, as he should be tgiven enough progressive licence with his ball carrying to break down Southampton when they do defend deep.
And lastly, I can see Brighton’s pressing to lead to a goal. Wait, no, let me rephrase that. Brighton’s pressing and Southampton’s self-attributed heroics leading to a goal.
🫡 Conclusion
Well, this was overly positive. So you just know how this match is going to go (well).
A win, and Brighton go up to second in the league. What a funny ol' feeling. May as well take it in while we can.
And that’s all I have for today.
Thank you for reading—I hope you enjoyed. Take care, have a good weekend, and see you next week for a flurry of football.
southampton’s form is very, very wobbly — and they’ve only have a few consistently good players, so it can’t be that bad