Brighton: Defensive Analysis

Defensive strength, FPL assets, player profiling

Well, well. Hello there. It’s been a fun start to the season, hasn’t it?

Unbeaten heading into the international break, and it should stay that way for at least a couple more games.

And it all started from something I didn’t expect: a fairly watertight defence.

But who makes up the defence? Who are the stalwarts? Who are the minute risks? Join me as we read on and find out. Hint: I love Jan Paul van Hecke, and you should too.

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🕊️ Context

In his pre-match presser before facing Arsenal (A), Fabian Hürzeler was asked about his defence in terms of recruitment. And this is what he said (deep breath in because it’s a long one):

I think… let’s look at the situation with Adam Webster. For me, a role model, of leading, a role model of how to be the best version everyday, how he trains, how he behaves, how he’s there for his teammates. For me it’s a shame to put him on the bench because he’s an unbelievable character, unbelievable player and that’s why you see the situation in the defence is also quite good.

I don’t want to put a player like him on the bench but at the moment there are Lewis and JP and we have a lot of options also in the defence, and I think against Crawley we also kept a clean sheet. of course in some situations we were also a little bit lucky to be honest, but in the end there are also like great options in the last line.

We also had no Ferdi, who can play left fullback, right fullback, we have Igor and (inaudible) we have still Tariq Lamptey, we have… yeah a lot of options in the defensive line, that’s why I’m also happy with this part of the squad.

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🧤 Bart Verbruggen

I’ve complimented Bart Verbruggen so much that my girlfriend now feels like an outsider in our relationship.

Verbruggen’s great. I know, I know, it’s not the most detailed of answers. But why overcomplicate things?

He can kick a ball (very well, in fact), has quick reflexes, and is a great shot-stopper with (largely) a positive PSxG+/- over his career.

The day he leaves Brighton is going to hit like a truck because, as far as goalkeepers go, Verbruggen’s generational.

And given that he’s now the undisputed #1 judging by Hürzeler’s comments, we’re in for a fun season ahead. 35 league games of Bart Verbruggen in goal? Yes, please.

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🕊️ Lewis Dunk

What new can be said of Lewis Dunk that hasn’t been said already? A defender I’d trust with my life, an unbelievably good passer (99th percentile for passes attempted, 93rd for pass completion), and a chest more reliable than your favourite meal deal.

But, especially for Lewis Dunk, let’s take a look at his value as an FPL asset. I have zero doubt about his quality, so there’s no need to even go there.

Firstly, Dunk isn’t getting any younger. He’s turning 33 this year (but he’s 32 until he’s 33!), and, well, you can see the effects of this.

Hürzeler’s system is physically demanding, to say the least. The centre-backs maintain a high defensive line, which they often jump across, so they have to run like their lives depend on it in transition.

And, however pre-emptive this is—given it bypasses my love for sample sizes—I think you can see its effects on Dunk. Cramps. And a lot of them.

It’s really not much to worry about given Dunk’s xMins (and his relatively high npxG+xAG/90 of 0.12), but, you know, it’s something to keep in mind.

He’ll start as long as he’s fit, and there’s the odd chance he comes off early if there’s a minor issue (which is +EV anyway), but the probability of an injury is higher than it’s been in previous years.

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🕊️ Jan Paul van Hecke

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*Clears throat* Ahem, everyone, I’ve written a poem:

Jan Paul van Hecke

My heart you will wreck

The day you leave the Albion

But until you play for Fabian

There’s nobody better

Than Jan Paul van Hecke

*Bracing for tomatoes to be thrown at my head*

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Two things: van Hecke is an excellent defender, and he can actually win headers. But what he doesn’t have is excellent PR, which explains a lot, because this fella can be (and is already, to some extent) one of the best centre-backs in the league.

There aren’t many other players in the league who deserved a national call-up more than he did, and boy oh boy, was he not perfect on debut?

He’s a 🦒, never afraid to make a challenge, an UNBELIEVABLY good passer (no seriously, those pings over the top 🤌), and he just feels like a leader. He loves the club, the club loves him, and he’s excellent at his job. What more can you want?

For FPL purposes, his attacking threat isn’t non-extant, but it also isn’t very extant (an npxG+xAG/90 of 0.09 is quite alright), which is why Lewis Dunk is better in this regard.

But van Hecke’s xMins are extremely safe. They’re arguably the joint safest in the squad (hallo, Bart) and that holds merit in itself. Pass completion and general defensive action are also likely to be good for his BPS accumulation.

And that’s why… 🥁… van Hecke’s my favourite defender to own from Brighton for FPL purposes.

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🇹🇷 Ferdi Kadioğlu

Look, Kadioğlu’s versatile. He can play everywhere. And that’s lovely for Brighton!

But a headache for me.

Let’s simplify things a bit, and say he’s not going to play in midfield. Wieffer, Baleba, O’Riley, Ayari, Gruda, Rutter, João Pedro, Hinshelwood—the whole shebang.

Which leaves LB, RB, and the first thought that popped into my head when he signed for the club: We finally have a new RB.

I mean, it makes sense, right? Veltman (big fan, by the way) and Lamptey have expiring contracts, which means there’s less competition there (soon, at least).

And Kadioğlu fits the role expected of him: invert and stay reserved in the first phase, and make overlapping runs when Minteh cuts inside.

He also gets enough freedom and time with the ball to do what he wants, which sounds like the dream of anyone who grew up with a football stuck to their feet.

But it’s not true to say that him playing as a RB is guaranteed. There are far too many variables in football to make unsubstantiated claims like that.

He could play LB as well, but Estupiñán should excel in the role expected of the LB, especially given he’s comfortable sitting deeper.

And Hinshelwood could fill in on either side.

Which, in a far too complicated manner, brings me to my conclusion: Kadioğlu should have good xMins, but can we say that we know this is true?

Probably not.

We know that van Hecke’s going to be starting in GW 4, 5, and beyond, but we think that Kadioğlu will. And there’s quite a big difference there, especially given Kadioğlu’s a big xMins risk for GW 4.

Which makes Kadioğlu a wait-and-watch for FPL purposes in my book.

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👋 Conclusion

I still maintain some of the defensive concerns I had in pre-season, and the real test will come against a pair of fast, dribbly wingers (I’m so glad Newcastle don’t have Yankuba Minteh), but things look better than I expected.

Brighton have been able to maintain a fairly good rest defence, and their out-of-possession structure is extremely solid overall.

Of course, it could be made “safer,” but the risk is taken on purpose to create sufficient dividends at the other end of the pitch.

Which it has done and will continue to do.

Because everything Brighton does out of possession is merely a tool to get the ball in the right place for a counterattack.

And who better to lead this defence than Jan Paul van Hecke?

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