Brighton: A New Beginning
A pre-pre-season analysis.
Brighton: a city known for its unusually violent seagulls and beaches that make your feet bleed.
And some half decent football, I suppose.
But what does the future of Brighton look like? It cost €91.50 million, so it must be bright?
Yes. Yes, it is. So put on your sunglasses, buy some seagull repellent, and let’s take a look at what’s next for Brighton and Hove Albion.
🕊️ An Overview of Brighton’s Squad
I’ll get to Fabian Hurzeler and his tactical nous in a second, but first, let’s take a look at Brighton’s squad. After all, it’s a player’s game.
No major (permanent) outgoings are expected, barring Pascal Groß (here come the tears) and Deniz Undav. Yankuba Minteh, Mats Wieffer, Ibrahim Osman, Malick Junior Yalcouyé, and Amario Cozier-Duberry make up the incomings.
So, all in all, it’s been quite a productive transfer window (unless you own a kebab shop or are in love with xG, in which case Deniz Undav’s potential exit has hurt you to your core).
True to my optimistic self, let’s start with what’s lacking in the squad:
Left Back: Each player has quite a nuanced profile, meaning they’re all good for *certain* situations. For example, if you need someone to make an overlapping run to stretch the pitch while whipping in cross after cross, Barco’s your man. Need defensive stability? Olá, Igor. And if you need a mix of both, you get Pervis Estupiñán. While he does have his weaknesses, he’s ultimately more physical than Barco and is better with the ball (at LB) than Igor.
So maybe it’s a bit harsh to say the LBs are a problem, but it just feels like something’s missing. A feeling I can only compare to what Spurs fans feel when they look at their trophy cabinet and see only a sad, dilapidated wooden cabinet.
Centre Back: I’ll get into Hürzeler’s de-facto three-at-the-back soon, but given that Hürzeler frequents a three-man rest defence, Brighton are one centre back short. Dunk and van Hecke are your stalwarts, but who partners them? Who plays in that challenging RCB spot? Who fills in when they need a rest? Who stops me from asking another rhetorical question?
Right Back: Much like parts of my happiness, this depends on whether or not Pascal Groß stays. I quite like Veltman as a RB, but he’d be better suited to playing as a RCB under Hürzeler. Hinshelwood and Lamptey would excel at RB, but Lamptey has had his share of injuries, which comes at the cost of some physicality.
In an ideal world, Brighton sign a physical RB who’s equally adept going forward (imagine a Lutsharel Geertruida-esque player) while wrapping Tariq Lamptey in cotton wool.
🕊️ Tactics, In and Out of Possession
I write this with Jan Paul van Hecke saying “What the van Hecke” in a sing-song voice ringing through my head.
A few months ago, while on a walk, this one thought entered my head and just wouldn’t leave.
What would a society with van Hecke playing as a DM look like? And if Hürzeler’s past is anything to go by, we’re not far from that society.
I must caveat this section by saying it’s based on Hürzeler’s tactics at St. Pauli. I expect minor tactical tweaks at Brighton since the squad is better suited to a 4-2-3-1 than a 3-4-3, but Hürzeler’s principles should remain the same.
Essentially, his principles aren’t too dissimilar to those of De Zerbi or Nagelsmann—overload the center via deep circulation. His teams bait the press by lulling the opponent into a false sense of security—slow build-up leads the opponent to jump their own defensive line, which can be played through via short, quick passing. That said, Hürzeler’s build-up is more dynamic, meaning free men aren’t only in the midfield but primarily through the wings.
🕊️ Tactics, In Possession
The basics of Hürzeler’s setup involve a 3-4-3 with a mobile CCB, athletic wingbacks, and generalist midfielders.
👉 As per the image on the left, the CCB (van Hecke) steps up into the midfield, forming a de facto diamond with the LCB, RCB, and the GK, who becomes a +1 in possession.
👉 The wingbacks have a free-roaming role in this scenario, meaning they find space for switches of play, stretching the pitch, and allowing the wingers to come inside. The mobility of the wingbacks while interchanging with the wingers is exactly what makes Hürzeler’s defensive setup so unique, which I’ll come to soon.
👉 The image in the centre relies on forming overloads centrally. Essentially, St. Pauli would play without a midfield.
I cannot believe that sentence, and I typed it out two seconds ago.
👉 Both the midfielders, the LCM and RDM (let’s say Baleba and Wieffer), would play as faux 10s, overloading the middle of the pitch alongside the CF and the CCB, who once again steps into midfield.
This means the midfielders are in and around the box and have room to box-crash as the CF pins the opponents’ CBs.
👉 As the centre is overloaded, the wings are naturally isolated. Here, the wingbacks run high and wide, allowing the wingers to cut inside, leading to a very dynamic and fluid relationship between the faux 10s and the wingers.
Really, it’s just a beautiful smorgasbord of controlled chaos.
👉 And the image on the right follows a basic pattern of play. We see first-phase build-up similar to the first image; however, the wingbacks come narrow instead of stretching the pitch in the second phase.
👉 This is followed by the CF dropping deep, alongside both the LCB and RCB playing long balls into the CF and faux 10s. This overloads the center and isolates the wings, meaning the CF/faux 10s can lay the ball off to the inverted wingbacks, who can find runners in behind via the wingers.
But what happens in transition? I mean, Brighton would have effectively committed seven men forward in attack, right? Well, yes, but no. Let’s take a look at Hürzeler’s OOP shape.
🕊️ Tactics, Out of Possession
Remember the adventurous CCB? It turns out he’s going to have to do a lot of running.
Luckily for Hürzeler, though, Brighton can manage a high line. This means they can drop into a compact mid-block while maintaining a high defensive line, not only limiting the passing lanes available to their opponents centrally but also squeezing the pitch to their own advantage.
Fundamentally, Hürzeler relies on counter-pressing to win possession, with his sides usually triggering the press as an entire unit.
👉 The 5-2-3 setup involves rigid marking from both CMs (again, Baleba and Wieffer would be perfect here) and relatively compact CBs.
In essence, there are five men covering the centre of the pitch.
So naturally, the opponent would look to access wider areas, right? Yes. But the defensive shape reacts to this change in intent by playing into the opponent.
👉 Both wingers would shift inside, almost playing as wide CMs, leading to a pressing shape of 5-4-1. Defend with 5, attack with 5. This five-man rest defence enables at least two defenders to “jump” out of the defensive line, aggressively pressing to win the ball back. After gaining possession, this compact 5-4-1 almost always has a free man available, meaning St. Pauli could play across the opponent’s press and make the most in transition.
🕊️ A Game of Numbers
Great, we now know Hürzeler’s tactics. But what was the end result? Would the excessive number of hours I spent making these graphics be for nothing?
The good news is, the numbers* look great.
The bad news is, if you don’t like numbers you’re going to see a lot of them anyway. Sorry, not sorry.
St. Pauli conceded 36 goals from 36.1 xGA (34 games), topping the league in both these stats. In fact, they conceded an npxG/90 of 1.05, a whole 0.42 less than the league average.
Their npxG/90 of 1.62 was well above the league average of 1.47 (the 0.15 difference roughly equates to an npxG of 5.1 across the season).
Their crosses/90 of 19.79 were, again, well above the league average, as evidenced by their reliance on their wingbacks (Oh hello, Valentin Barco).
Bart Verbruggen and Jason Steele will find joy in the fact that St. Pauli had the lowest GK Long Ball % in the league, at 23.0%. That said, I do expect this to change due to the physicality of the Premier League, especially if we see a tall RCB/RB/RWB signed 🦒
*I owe this segment to FBref and Soccerment.
🕊️ Adapting to Brighton
If I’m honest, I don’t necessarily think Hürzeler’s system is perfect for the squad Brighton have. That said, it suits certain profiles more than the rest:
👉 Bart Verbruggen—I could wax lyrical, write poem after poem, on why Bart Verbruggen suits Hürzeler, but at the end of the day, it comes down to one simple fact: he’s just a very good sweeper-keeper. Excellent with his feet, quick reflexes, and good positional awareness.
👉 Lewis Dunk: For a right-footer, he’s mastered the angles on the left perfectly. Dunk can be expected to play a healthy mix of quick short and long balls, and there aren’t many better in this regard.
👉 van Hecke: Lewis Dunk but younger and more springy.
👉 Carlos Baleba: Brilliant at ball-carrying, and he won’t look out of place while defending in a 5-4-1.
👉 Valentin Barco: Barco’s the perfect LWB profile for Hürzeler’s system. He can hold the width, make runs in behind, invert, and defend similarly to a CM. I’d be slightly concerned from a physicality/aerial point of view, but other profiles such as Dunk, van Hecke, and Verbruggen mitigate my worries🦒
👉 Solly March: Think of Valentin Barco, but if he could exhibit even more control whilst being a viable option as a RWB and RW.
👉 Facundo Buonanotte: He has experience on the right and is much better in the pockets where a Hürzeler winger spends most of their time, both in and out of possession.
👉 Joao Pedro: I’m not sure what to make of JP really. He was Brighton’s best attacker last season, and I think he’s *generally* a very underrated footballer. But where would he play under Hürzeler?
I think Evan Ferguson fits his mould of CF better than JP, by way of hold-up play and aerial ability, but JP dropping deep would be perfect for man-marking scenarios. Say Brighton are playing against a low block—João as a false nine, with both wingbacks inverted as the wingers stretch the width? *Chef’s kiss.*
He also wouldn’t look out of place on either wing, ideally on the left, as he’d get enough room to cut inside and make himself a box threat. I’ve been impressed by his off-the-ball work as well, and his experience as a 10 would help while defending in the 5-4-1.
To summarise, I think JP is perfect for Hürzeler. So perfect, in fact, that I’m not sure where he fits in.
🕊️ What’s Next?
In perhaps the most frustrating answer known to mankind, all I can say is—let’s see where preseason takes us.
I’d like to think Hürzeler adapts to some version of a 4-2-3-1 for two main reasons:
It simply suits the squad better.
The roaming CB could get taken out of the game by high-pressing sides.
But whether or not this change happens is, for the moment, an uncertainty.
Brighton have a deep squad this season, perhaps to levels they haven’t seen before, so this does create an increased sense of flexibility. I don’t expect rotation to reach De Zerbi levels, but it certainly will happen.
Regardless of the system, I think the most important players (when fit) will include:
Bart Verbruggen
Lewis Dunk
Jan Paul van Hecke
Carlos Baleba
Mats Wieffer
Jack Hinshelwood
Kaoru Mitoma
Solly March*
Facundo Buonanotte
João Pedro
Evan Ferguson
Time will eventually tell what all this means for Brighton and Hove Albion, but I can tell you that success feels like a certainty. There’ll be a time lag for Hürzeler to adapt (he’s only 31, after all), but this will be a mere blip on the way to a brighter tomorrow.
Okay, enough clichés for today. See you next week, as we head on a Japanese tour 🇯🇵
Great piece! I loved the tactical insight into Fabian Hürzeler's in possession/out of possession principles. Written beautifully